NCC Survey Suggests U.S. Producers to Plant 15.9 Million Acres of Upland and ELS Cotton in 2001

2001 U.S. Cotton Planting Intentions Table

SAN DIEGO, CA - Despite flat Upland cotton prices, waning farm program benefits and rising fertilizer/energy costs, U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 15.9 million acres of cotton this spring, up 2.3 percent from 2000, according to the National Cotton Council's 18^th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. If realized, this would be the second largest Upland plantings since 1962, trailing only the 16.72 million acres in 1995.

The rising input costs actually may be a factor in boosting cotton acreage for 2001.

"There is evidence that fertilizer costs are perhaps double those of the previous year and fuel costs have risen even more," Dr. Kent Lanclos, assistant director of NCC's Economic Services, said here today at the the American Cotton Producers meeting preceding the NCC's 62nd Annual Meeting. "For a typical U.S. cotton grower, this could increase production costs by perhaps $30-$40 per acre. "However, the impact of these costs will be even greater for corn production - with its higher fertilization and drying requirements - so more acres might be induced into cotton than would have been otherwise this coming season."

Lanclos also noted that with extra long staple (ELS) cotton prices around $1 per pound, some upland acreage apparently will be shifted back to ELS.

The NCC survey for 2001 revealed that Upland cotton intentions are 15.67 million acres, an increase of 2 percent from 2000 plantings of 15.36 million acres. Extra long staple (ELS) intentions of 225,000 acres represent a 31.5 percent increase from 2000's 172,000 acres.

With average abandonment, total upland and ELS harvested area would be about 14.33 million acres. Applying each state's average yield to its 2001 projected harvested acres generates a crop of 18.46 million bales - 17.98 million bales of upland cotton and 479,000 bales of ELS cotton. Cottonseed production is projected at 6.97 million tons in 2001.

Lanclos said the NCC survey, mailed to a random group of about one-third of U.S. cotton growers, got an 8 percent response rate, smaller than the typical 10 percent. He said even though NCC's 2000 cotton acreage estimate of 15.35 million was only 190,000 acres lower than USDA's final 2000 number, 2001 actual plantings could be significantly different from growers' initial intentions due to changing weather and market conditions between now and planting time. Based on survey results, cotton acreage will increase by 1.4 percent in the Southeast and by 10.8 percent in the Mid-South while decreasing 1.8 percent in the Southwest and 4.3 percent in the Far West.

Lanclos noted: 1) North Carolina growers' intention to boost plantings by 5.7 percent to 983,000 acres, if realized, would be the state's largest acreage since 1.11 million acres were planted in 1937, 2) the largest percentage increases in the Mid-South are projected for Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi and 3) in California, it appears some Upland acreage will be switched into ELS.